PLV FOB weekly recap 11 April "when all the bullish news is out, the market turns bearish" - click to read

Weekly Coking Coal Market Summary (FOB Australia)

• Strong start to the week

Initial rally driven by the Appin incident.

Market moved higher despite bearish macro backdrop.

• Quick correction followed

No panic buying from end users.

Rally lost steam the next day.

• Tariff volatility impacts sentiment

DCE futures hit record lows.

Physical market sentiment weakened.

Chinese coke price uptick stalled.

• Mid-week cooling in sentiment

Traders struggled to sell at higher levels.

End users turning to alternatives: Canada, US, China.

• End of week highlights

Spot trade at $185 FOB (Glencore sold).

Surprising to see Glencore in the spot market—signals extra spot availability.

Limited appetite at this level from other traders and end users.

• Demand trends

End users asking miners for optional tonnage (hedging supply risk).

Low interest in spot deals.

Prior Aus coal buyers now engaging US/Canada—not willing to pay up.

• Current supply-demand imbalance

Traders holding more position cargoes than known demand.

Additional spot cargoes from US, Canada, China at $190 FOB adding pressure.

• Market Irony

“When all the bullish news is out, the market turns bearish.”

Despite the Appin and Anglo supply risks, lack of follow-through buying reveals underlying weakness.

Market seems to have priced in the bullish narrative too early, and the absence of real demand quickly exposed the imbalance.