China’s March Credit Surge May Lift Met Coal Sentiment, But Seasonal Factors in Play

China’s March data showed a sharp rise in liquidity: new RMB loans hit ¥9.78 trillion (vs ¥9.14T forecast), and total social financing reached ¥15.18 trillion (vs ¥14.25T expected). M1 supply rose 1.6% YoY (vs 0.3% forecast), and M0 surged 11.5% YoY. While seasonal effects from Chinese New Year likely inflated these figures, the strong credit pulse has lifted short-term sentiment in steel and met coal markets. Traders are watching for downstream demand recovery, especially in infrastructure. Sustainability remains uncertain—April and May data will be key to confirm any structural rebound in coal demand.