Anglo's Moranbah mine shut down due to gas, impact limited

Market Impact Summary – Moranbah North Shutdown

Let's say the halt takes about 4 months (assuming the same duration taken in 2021). The halt at Anglo American’s Moranbah North mine (avg. 2.95 million mt/year from 2023-2024) equates to a supply loss of ~3.28 Panamax vessels per month. However, the impact on spot pricing remains limited due to balancing factors:

• BHP is expected to contribute an additional ~2.78 Panamax vessels/month into the spot market (from 2.5 million mt uncontracted volume).

• European reselling continues to add ~1 Panamax vessel/month.

• Japan and Korea remain demand-side uncertainties ("wild cards"), especially amid potential pullback due to auto-related tariffs.

Overall, fundamentals appear balanced for now (3.78 > 3.28) , with no signs of panic demand surfacing and actually surplus cargoes. Furthermore, Anglo will hand over the mine to Peabody in the next quarters and efforts will be made to resume production as soon as possible.

The Incident:

Anglo American's Moranbah North coal mine in Central Queensland was evacuated and shut down on March 31, 2025, after carbon monoxide levels spiked due to an "over pressure event" at the longwall face. No injuries were reported, and monitoring shows underground conditions are now stable. The incident comes amid heightened concerns, as Anglo’s nearby Grosvenor mine remains closed after a 2024 explosion. Moranbah North also faced a shutdown in 2021 for similar reasons. Authorities, including Resources Safety and Health Queensland, are working with the company to assess safety before reopening. Carbon monoxide may signal spontaneous combustion underground, prompting strict safety reviews.